A Data-Driven Innovation lab has published SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic models based on data from different countries to predict the key dates of transition during the epidemic lifecycle in different countries.

“The function fitVirusCV19 implements the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model for the estimation of epidemy evaluation. It is assumed that the model is a reasonable description of the one-stage epidemic. In particular, the model assumes a constant population, uniform mixing of the people, and equally likely recovery of infected. The model is data-driven, so its forecast is as good as data are. The forecasting change with new or changed data. The officially declared outbreak of the epidemic and the outbreak of the epidemic as it reported by the program have nothing to do with each other. The program indicates the start date when the data is sufficient to calculate the initial approximation.”

Needless to say, the model date may not be accurate but you can track the actual results vs the predicted ones to have a better idea on where every country when it comes to the COVID-19 pandemic. More importantly, we’re only talking about the first COVID-19 wave as no one is capable of predicting what’s gonna happen when lockdown is lifted.

As far as Canada is concerned, the latest prediction says May 16 may be the end date, but the actual numbers don’t really align unless we witness a significant drop in the coming week (Fingers crossed).

Today, we had only 264 new cases in Montreal vs 651 new cases in all of Quebec. If we were to follow the below graph produced by Patrick Dery, it appears that we’re at the peak now and should expected a gradual drop in the coming days/weeks to come.

Check out the full stats [here].